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The four seasons of investing

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- August 06, 2023

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The Juglar's 9,2 year cycle

- January 21, 2019

Divide a generational cycle into two and you get what is often referred as a Juglar cycle, a 9.2 year or almost decade-long cycle, one that corresponds to the time that often separates recessions and major sun spot waves.

Spend, save, invest, repeat or give back

- May 27, 2018

Money flows from financial assets to the economy, back and forth. This is what make investing so special and different from other activities involving money. Most people work to make money. An investor uses money to work for him or her. You can do four things with money: · Spend it · Save it · Invest it · Repeat or Give it back Spending and giving are both a form of consumption. At first, investing could be seen as a derivative of saving money. That said, while saving is static and expect to receive nothing else than the return of the money, investing is really different in that it is also looking to make money and a return on the money. To save money, you must spend less than you earn. This puts the priorities in the right order: income generation always precedes capital accumulation. Income and capital are what investors are interested in. Capital is nothing else tha...

Cycles within cycles

- March 30, 2019

Since times immemorial, man has been a witness of the cyclicality of nature and of life. It starts with your pulse, your heart beat, the pace of your breathing, the daily sun sets, the tides and the moon, the seasons etc, a surrounding all encompassing cycle of births, growth spurts, maturity and decay, all dictated by the same thermodynamic law of entropy, a booming spark of chaotic energy that eventually gets diffused into orderly cold matter. This same universal clock of ascending and descending energy is at work in markets and is what the great technicians Charles Dow, Ralph Nelson Elliott and William Gann have described over centuries. They too noticed the fractal nature of market cycles, made of long ascending and descending primary trends, themselves made of ascending and descending intermediary trends, themselves made of smaller trends etc. In brief, cycles within cycles. This dialectical historical mechanics is the way of the Tao or what...